*⚾ When Little League underdogs take on Major League players…*

Crypto winter has hit hard, with bitcoin down 56% this year. But analysts (and crypto __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR/)__) are starting to whisper about a possible "alt szn" as altcoins like __[dogecoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/DOGE/)__ and __[matic](https://robinhood.com/crypto/MATIC/)__ have seen outsized gains relative to BTC over the past month. Possibly boosting alts: Elon Musk and Instagram NFTs.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: “alt season”

__An iPhone under the Christmas tree…__ may be harder to come by this holiday season. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ [warned](https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-revises-down-q4-outlook-zhengzhou-covid-woes-2022-11-06/) of lower iPhone shipment volumes for the year as production snags dampen its outlook. It’s reportedly expecting to churn out at least [3M](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/apple-trims-new-iphone-output-by-3-million-units-as-demand-cools) *fewer* iPhone 14s than previously anticipated. The hardware heavyweight began selling its iPhone 14 line in September, but sales have swiftly cooled. Two reasons: 

- __Underwhelming demand:__ Consumers aren’t splurging as much on fancy gadgets, which explains weaker demand for Apple’s pricey Pro offerings. Last month Apple reported record quarterly sales, but iPhone revenue was softer than expected. 
- __Overwhelming rules:__ China’s zero-Covid policy has [messed with](https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-revises-down-q4-outlook-zhengzhou-covid-woes-2022-11-06/) Apple’s production this year. The latest snafu: the main iPhone assembly site, in Zhengzhou (aka: “iPhone City”), is under a weeklong Covid shutdown. Apple said customers should expect longer wait times. 

__Everybody talks…__ Last week there were rumors flying about when China would end its strict Covid restrictions (think: [locking visitors](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/shanghai-disneyland-closed-covid-china-visitors-locked-in-park-for-testing/) inside __[Disneyland](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__). Chinese stocks surged on speculation that authorities could lift some measures earlier than expected. The rumor mill may’ve boosted some US stocks, too, since so much production depends on China. Now investors aren’t so optimistic: on Sunday China reported its highest # of new Covid infections in six months (4.4K). Chinese health officials said they would stick with their strategy.

iMessage from Santa: “I might be late” (George Frey/Getty images)

Unboxed

__No one puts China in a corner…__ except maybe China. The world’s second-largest economy is putting blockers in front of its own growth, and fourth-quarter GDP is already hitting [speed bumps](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q4-gdp-hits-early-speed-bump-covid-stifles-economy-2022-10-25/) as Covid rules depress demand and productivity. But the US and corporate titans like Apple can’t just brush that off as a “China problem.” Since the US imports more from China than any other country, it’s an *everyone* problem — that only China can tackle.

iPhone production is expected to take a holiday hit as China’s Covid rules continue to mess with supply

__Backup plan = beer...__ Cannabis companies have been waiting for US federal regulators to legalize marijuana, and now they’re having a (few) drinks while they bide their time. Yesterday Canadian cannabis giant __[Tilray](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TLRY/)__ [bought](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/11/07/2549865/0/en/Tilray-Brands-Acquires-Montauk-Brewing-Company.html) NYC’s top craft brewer __Montauk Brewing Co.__. 

- __Big swigs:__ Montauk is sold in 6K+ stores, including __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT/)__, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST/)__, and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__. It joins beer maker SweetWater and bourbon brand Breckenridge Distillery in Tilray’s growing beverage portfolio.
- __Two cans with one stone:__ Tilray said the purchase would boost profitability. But it serves another purpose: Tilray plans to leverage Montauk’s US distribution network (and customers) to start selling canna-beverages nationwide as soon as they’re legal.

__Stuck in the weeds…__ Recreational cannabis is legal in 19 states and DC — and five more states are voting *today* on whether to greenlight it. But since cannabis still isn't *federally* legal, many canna-companies are struggling to build national distribution networks. 

- __Impatient partners:__ Bud brewer __[AB-InBev](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BUD/)__ ended a two-year partnership with Tilray this year after waiting for legalization. Meanwhile, drink giants __[Constellation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STZ/)__ and __PBR__ have launched their own canna-beverages in smaller markets.
- __Placeholder products:__ Pot rival __[Canopy Growth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC/)__ has launched non-cannabis lines, like a skincare biz and sports-drink brand, to prep for legalization (think: eventually infusing moisturizer with CBD).

__The star player is on the sidelines…__ While Tilray, __[Aurora Cannabis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB/)__, and Canopy posted overall losses last quarter, Tilray’s smaller non-canna brands are already profitable — and Tilray expects positive cash flow by the end of the year (FYI: Aurora reports Thursday). But the cannabis industry’s main attraction (cough, cannabis) could spur rapid growth when it gets in the game: the market is forecast to grow from roughly $1B last year to $19B by 2028.

Cannabis giant Tilray bets big on boozy beverages as it waits for broad US legalization

Apple's iPhone production is expected to take a holiday hit as China’s Covid curbs continue