🎄 iPhone’s sad holiday

1. iPhone production is expected to take a holiday hit as China’s Covid rules continue to mess with supply

An iPhone under the Christmas tree… may be harder to come by this holiday season. Apple warned of lower iPhone shipment volumes for the year as production snags dampen its outlook. It’s reportedly expecting to churn out at least 3M fewer iPhone 14s than previously anticipated. The hardware heavyweight began selling its iPhone 14 line in September, but sales have swiftly cooled. Two reasons:

• Underwhelming demand: Consumers aren’t splurging as much on fancy gadgets, which explains weaker demand for Apple’s pricey Pro offerings. Last month Apple reported record quarterly sales, but iPhone revenue was softer than expected.
• Overwhelming rules: China’s zero-Covid policy has messed with Apple’s production this year. The latest snafu: the main iPhone assembly site, in Zhengzhou (aka: “iPhone City”), is under a weeklong Covid shutdown. Apple said customers should expect longer wait times.

Everybody talks… Last week there were rumors flying about when China would end its strict Covid restrictions (think: locking visitors inside Disneyland). Chinese stocks surged on speculation that authorities could lift some measures earlier than expected. The rumor mill may’ve boosted some US stocks, too, since so much production depends on China. Now investors aren’t so optimistic: on Sunday China reported its highest # of new Covid infections in six months (4.4K). Chinese health officials said they would stick with their strategy.

THE TAKEAWAY

No one puts China in a corner… except maybe China. The world’s second-largest economy is putting blockers in front of its own growth, and fourth-quarter GDP is already hitting speed bumps as Covid rules depress demand and productivity. But the US and corporate titans like Apple can’t just brush that off as a “China problem.” Since the US imports more from China than any other country, it’s an everyone problem — that only China can tackle.

2. Cannabis giant Tilray bets big on boozy beverages as it waits for broad US legalization

Backup plan = beer... Cannabis companies have been waiting for US federal regulators to legalize marijuana, and now they’re having a (few) drinks while they bide their time. Yesterday Canadian cannabis giant Tilray bought NYC’s top craft brewer Montauk Brewing Co..

• Big swigs: Montauk is sold in 6K+ stores, including Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Costco, and Walmart. It joins beer maker SweetWater and bourbon brand Breckenridge Distillery in Tilray’s growing beverage portfolio.
• Two cans with one stone: Tilray said the purchase would boost profitability. But it serves another purpose: Tilray plans to leverage Montauk’s US distribution network (and customers) to start selling canna-beverages nationwide as soon as they’re legal.

Stuck in the weeds… Recreational cannabis is legal in 19 states and DC — and five more states are voting today on whether to greenlight it. But since cannabis still isn't federally legal, many canna-companies are struggling to build national distribution networks.

• Impatient partners: Bud brewer AB-InBev ended a two-year partnership with Tilray this year after waiting for legalization. Meanwhile, drink giants Constellation and PBR have launched their own canna-beverages in smaller markets.
• Placeholder products: Pot rival Canopy Growth has launched non-cannabis lines, like a skincare biz and sports-drink brand, to prep for legalization (think: eventually infusing moisturizer with CBD).

THE TAKEAWAY

The star player is on the sidelines… While Tilray, Aurora Cannabis, and Canopy posted overall losses last quarter, Tilray’s smaller non-canna brands are already profitable — and Tilray expects positive cash flow by the end of the year (FYI: Aurora reports Thursday). But the cannabis industry’s main attraction (cough, cannabis) could spur rapid growth when it gets in the game: the market is forecast to grow from roughly $1B last year to $19B by 2028.

3. Heard on the Block: “alt season”

⚾ When Little League underdogs take on Major League players…

Crypto winter has hit hard, with bitcoin down 56% this year. But analysts (and crypto Twitter) are starting to whisper about a possible "alt szn" as altcoins like dogecoin and matic have seen outsized gains relative to BTC over the past month. Possibly boosting alts: Elon Musk and Instagram NFTs.

What else we’re Snackin’

• Fly: Mastodon, a decentralized social-media platform, just hit 1M monthly users. The ad-free crowdfunded site is being positioned as a Twitter alternative as some people ditch the blue bird post Elon.
• Cashed: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway swung to a $2.7B loss last quarter amid the broader market selloff. Still, the renowned holding company says quarterly losses (and gains) are “usually meaningless.”
• BagFee: Ryanair raked in record profits over the summer as inflation-plagued Europeans turned to budget airfare. As the travel boom continues, Ryanair’s CEO says the biz could have a strong winter too.
• Metout: Shares of Meta jumped nearly 6% on reports that it’s planning to lay off thousands of workers this week. Meta joins techy peers like Twitter and Lyft, who’ve slashed headcount to cut costs.
• Letters: FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (aka: SBF) and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (aka: CZ) are beefing. CZ said he's selling $530M of FTX’s token after CoinDesk reported that SBF’s trading firm, Alameda, is largely backed by it.

Snack Fact of the Day

Tuesday

• Earnings expected from: Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Constellation Energy, GlobalFoundries, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Coty, AMC, Affirm, Planet Fitness, and Sweetgreen

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin, dogecoin, and matic and shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Disney, Walmart, Apple, Twitter, Canopy, and Aurora

ID: 2580682